You launched a campaign last month. Sales increased. But did the campaign actually cause those sales—or would they have happened anyway? This question sits at the heart of marketing attribution, and getting the answer wrong can cost you millions.
Attribution Models Explained#
Last-click gives all credit to final touchpoint (undervalues awareness). First-click credits initial discovery. Linear splits equally. Time-decay weights recent touches higher. Position-based gives 40% to first and last. Data-driven uses ML.
The Platform Attribution Problem#
Each platform takes credit for any conversion it touched. When you sum platform-reported conversions, you get more than actual sales. Platforms have no incentive to fix this.
Marketing Mix Modeling#
MMM analyzes aggregate data to measure channel contribution without user-level tracking. Privacy-proof, measures offline channels, captures halo effects. Needs 2+ years of historical data.
Incrementality Testing#
The gold standard: controlled experiments proving causation. Run geo-holdouts, RCTs, or ghost bidding tests. Reveals true incremental value—often 20-40% of platform-reported for retargeting.
